Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 232.728093 282.574596 344.100701 426.914356 537.493652 6.830889e+02 8.945976e+02
2025-08-03 175.225047 232.472396 312.230412 435.756933 630.738078 9.432112e+02 1.521668e+03
2025-08-10 141.581728 199.484127 287.261081 437.991259 709.227501 1.222475e+03 2.414594e+03
2025-08-17 117.662707 173.113254 262.543575 428.702764 760.828411 1.485206e+03 3.567217e+03
2025-08-24 100.418416 152.802898 241.526636 417.310222 801.446375 1.753145e+03 5.124486e+03
2025-08-31 87.365913 136.621671 223.467198 405.095254 834.089253 2.028645e+03 7.245216e+03
2025-09-07 83.058309 134.387362 229.604675 443.231520 1003.544270 2.847170e+03 1.409931e+04
2025-09-14 75.857048 125.682510 221.481207 447.618341 1089.331200 3.502077e+03 2.349052e+04
2025-09-21 70.873533 120.242648 218.660084 463.492989 1219.170576 4.523169e+03 4.532507e+04
2025-09-28 65.087406 112.400026 209.327144 460.386885 1288.733972 5.399929e+03 8.065172e+04
2025-10-05 63.486535 112.516821 217.099901 505.032000 1559.568970 8.032960e+03 2.816807e+05
2025-10-12 61.334642 111.172594 221.303939 541.580550 1834.925364 1.169860e+04 1.479008e+06
2025-10-19 58.600685 108.449144 222.307619 571.239237 2124.237479 1.713435e+04 3.063613e+07
2025-10-26 55.443223 104.408168 219.419168 588.187809 2378.938298 2.423549e+04 NaN
2025-11-02 52.065205 99.445488 213.314449 592.460065 2577.331750 3.277345e+04 NaN
2025-11-09 48.356029 93.301479 203.115451 578.966337 2660.639564 4.052537e+04 NaN
2025-11-16 44.939047 87.462418 192.840476 562.230846 2712.958871 4.906759e+04 NaN
2025-11-23 41.849726 82.068767 182.983641 544.301911 2745.229711 5.861331e+04 NaN
2025-11-30 41.503551 83.070298 190.954238 600.526348 3440.052720 1.264846e+05 NaN
2025-12-07 39.603601 80.130869 187.235510 607.032806 3739.312277 1.981557e+05 NaN
2025-12-14 38.322243 78.564461 187.290127 630.639991 4265.568663 3.925695e+05 NaN
2025-12-21 36.413900 75.250225 181.601149 626.013057 4495.545292 6.280299e+05 NaN
2025-12-28 36.296160 76.428485 189.895801 692.880848 5788.261857 3.335573e+06 NaN